Will Housing Affordability Be a Challenge in 2017?

Some industry experts are saying that the housing market may be heading for a slowdown in 2017 based on rising home prices and a jump in mortgage interest rates. One of the data points they use is the Housing Affordability Index, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

一些專家指出,由於房價上漲和貸款利率上升,房屋市場可能將在2017年放緩,他們使用的數據之一是由美國房地產經紀人協會(NAR)報告的房屋負擔能力指數。

Here is how NAR defines the index:
以下為NAR如何解釋指數:

“The Housing Affordability Index measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national level based on the most recent price and income data.”

“房屋負擔能力指數衡量根據最近的房價和收入調查,一個典型的家庭是否能夠賺取足夠的收入負擔得起房屋貸款來購買房屋。”

Basically, a value of 100 means a family earning the median income earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, based on the price and mortgage interest rates at the time. Anything above 100 means the family has more than enough to qualify.

基本上,100的數據表示根據當時的房價和貸款利率,收入足夠負擔得起房貸購屋,任何超過100的數據表示收入還多於可負擔得起購屋的房貸。

The higher the index, the easier it is to afford a home.

指數越高,表示越容易購屋。

Why the concern?
為什麼擔心?

The index has been declining over the last several years as home values increased. Some are concerned that too many buyers could be priced out of the market.

該指數在過去幾年裡隨著房屋價值的上漲而下降,有些人擔心許多買家可能因為房價而退出市場。

But, wait a minute…

但是,請等一下…

Though the index skyrocketed from 2009 through 2013, we must realize during that time the housing crisis left the market with an overabundance of housing inventory with as many as one out of three listings being a distressed property (foreclosure or short sale). All prices dropped dramatically and distressed properties sold at major discounts. Then, mortgage rates fell like a rock.

雖然指數在2009年至2013年期間大幅攀升,但我們必須意識到,在那段時間內,房屋市場危機使德市場上的房屋庫存量過多,三分之一的房產屬於不良資產(止贖或短期出售),所有價格急劇下降,不良地產以大幅折扣售出,接著,貸款利率像一塊岩石一樣下跌。

The market is recovering, and values are coming back nicely. That has caused the index to fall.

市場正在復蘇,房價回升,這導致指數下跌。

However, let’s remove the crisis years and look at the current index as compared to the index from 1990 – 2008:

然而,讓我們刪除過去的危機幾年,並看看目前指數與1990 – 2008年的指數相比:

20170119-STM-ENG-1024x576.jpg

We can see that, even though prices have increased, mortgage rates are still lower than historical averages and have put the index in a better position than every year for the nineteen years before the crash.

我們可以看到,即使價格上漲,貸款利率仍然低於歷史平均值,並使該指數在崩潰前的十九年的每年都更好的位置。

Bottom Line
結論

The Housing Affordability Index is in great shape and should not be seen as a challenge to the real estate market’s continued recovery.

住屋負擔能力指數處於很好的形勢,不應該被視為對房地產市場持續復甦的挑戰。

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s