4 Stats That PROVE This Is NOT 2005 All over Again

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Recent research by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) examined certain red flags that caused the housing crisis in 2005, and then compared them to today’s real estate market. Today, we want to concentrate on four of those red flags.

全國房地產經紀人協會(NAR)的最新研究考察觀察了在2005年引起了房地產市場危機的警示,並將它們與現今的房地產市場相比,今天我們來看看其中的四項警示。

  1. Price to Rent Ratio
    房價與租金比率
  2. Price to Income Ratio
    房價與收入比率
  3. Mortgage Transactions
    房貸交易數量
  4. House Flipping
    房屋整修後轉賣

All four categories were outside historical norms in 2005. Home prices were way above normal ratios when compared to both rents and incomes at the time.

這四個項目在2005年皆超越歷史標準,當時的房價與租金和收入比較起來遠高於正常的比率。

NAR explained that mortgage transactions as a percentage of all home sales were also at a higher percentage:

NAR解釋當時房貸交易數量在所有銷售房屋中佔的百分比也處於較高的狀況:

“Loose credit was one of the main culprits of the housing crisis. Mortgage lending expanded dramatically as unhealthy housing speculation reached its peak and was met by the highest level of credit availability as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The index measures the overall mortgage credit condition by the share of home sales financed by mortgages. This metric does not capture credit quality, but it does set a view of the importance of financing in supporting the housing market.”

“寬鬆的信貸是房地產市場危機的主要元兇,急劇擴大不健康的投機貸款達到了頂峰,並通過抵押貸款銀行家協會的最高信貸額度,該指數衡量了整體抵押貸款的數目,但並沒有衡量信貸的品質,但證實了信用貸款對房地產市場的重要性。

House flipping was rampant in 2005. As NAR’s research points out:
房屋整修後轉賣也是2005年繁茂的風氣,NAR的研究指出:

“Heightened flipping activity is a clear indication of speculation in the real estate market. A property is considered as a speculative flip if the property is sold twice within 12 months and with positive profit. Flipping is a normal part of a healthy housing market. In an inflated housing market, expectations about short-term profit from pure price appreciation are very high; therefore, the level of flipping activity would show evidence of being heightened.”

“房屋整修後轉賣的數量增加是房地產市場投機買賣的明確指示,一棟房屋如在12個月之內賣出兩次並賺取利益,即是投機性的翻轉買賣,翻轉買賣是健康的房地產市場中一個正常的部分,在膨脹的房地產市場,從單純的價格升值獲得的短期盈利預期是非常高的,因此翻轉買賣數量將會增加。

Here are the categories with percentages reflecting the unrealistic ratios & numbers of 2005 as compared to the current market. Remember, a negative percentage reflects a positive gain for the market.

下圖為2005年的不正常比率與數據與今日相比,請記住,負百分比反映了市場正在增益。

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Bottom Line
結論

They say hindsight is 20/20… Today, experts are keeping a close watch on the potential red flags that went unnoticed in 2005.

俗話說不經一事不長一智,現今的專家們更保持密切關注這些在2005年被忽視了的潛在警示。

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