Brexit 1 Month Later: The Impact on Mortgage Rates

Brexit-1-Month-STM

Just over a month ago, the United Kingdom decided to withdraw from the European Union in a decision commonly known as Brexit. At that time there was a lot of speculation on how that decision would impact the U.S. residential mortgage market. Today, we want to look at the impact of the first 30 days.

一個月前英國決定退出歐盟,俗稱Brexit,當時對此決定將如何影響美國房屋貸款市場有諸多猜測,今天讓我們來看看在這30天中的影響。

Most believed that the Brexit decision would drive mortgage rates down and keep them down for some time. As CoreLogic reported:

大多數專家認為Brexit將帶房屋貸款利率下降,並持續一段時間保持低點,CoreLogic報導指出:

 “First-time buyers can count on continued low mortgage rates to help with affordability issues. Similarly, re-setting adjustable rate loans will have less of a rate shock, and in some cases may even go down.”

“首次購屋者可以靠著持續的低房貸利率,以幫助購屋經濟能力的問題,同樣的,可調整利率貸款也較保持平穩,在某些情況下甚至可能利率會下降。

What has actually happened?
實際上的狀況呢?

Initially, rates did fall. However, Freddie Mac has reported that rates have stabilized and have actually increased marginally each of the last two weeks. This prompted Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Beckett to say:

起初利率的確下降,不過房地美報告表示利率已穩定下來,反倒於過去兩個星期略有增加,房地美首席經濟學家肖恩·貝克特說:

“Post-Brexit volatility tapered off over the last two weeks, allowing interest rates to bounce back a bit from their near-record 30-year mortgage rate lows.”

“Brexit後的波動性逐漸減少,在過去兩週內,讓利率從30年內最低房貸利率創新紀錄低點回升了點。”

And, Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon believes rates will continue to increase:

資本經濟屬性經濟學家馬修·普安頓認為利率將繼續增加:

“Given we expect Brexit will have a minimal impact on the U.S. economy, we see no reason to change our forecast for mortgage rates to reach 3.85% by the end of this year, and 5.0% by the middle of 2018.”

“鑑於我們預計Brexit將會對美國經濟的影響不大,我們認為沒有理由改變對抵押貸款利率到今年年底將達到3.85%,和2018年中期將達到5.0%的預測。”

For now, it appears that the impact of Brexit on the U.S. housing market was not as dramatic as some thought it could be.

 

目前狀況看來,似乎Brexit對美國房地產市場的影響並不像有些人預測的那麼強大。

 

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